Geneva, 31 July 2026: Global merchandise trade showed stronger-than-expected performance in the first quarter of 2026, with robust demand for artificial intelligence (AI)-related electronic components helping offset the initial impact of the conflict in the Middle East, according to the latest analysis by the World Trade Organization (WTO).
The WTO reported that the seasonally adjusted volume of world merchandise trade increased by 1.9% quarter-on-quarter and 3.2% year-on-year in Q1 2026. In value terms, global merchandise trade increased by 2% compared with the previous quarter and 11% compared with Q1 2025
AI Boom Supports Global Trade
A major factor behind the stronger trade performance was the continued expansion of trade in AI-enabling goods.
The WTO said the US-dollar value of trade in AI-enabling goods increased by more than 40% year-on-year during the first quarter of 2026. The strongest growth among the broad product categories examined was recorded in office and telecommunications equipment, which increased 44% year-on-year.
Trade in ores and other minerals also increased by 27%, while trade in other machinery rose by 9%.
The WTO noted that much of Asia’s trade growth was linked to the intra-regional movement of AI-enabling goods, with China, Singapore, the Republic of Korea, Thailand and Chinese Taipei contributing to the increase.
Middle East Conflict Creates Major Trade Risks
Despite the positive global figures, the WTO cautioned that the effects of the Middle East conflict were only partially reflected in Q1 trade statistics.
According to the WTO, disruption to maritime transport through the Strait of Hormuz became significant toward the end of the first quarter. As a result, the full impact is expected to become more visible in trade data from April 2026 onwards.
The WTO estimated that Middle Eastern export and import volumes declined by 9.7% and 11.9%, respectively, year-on-year in Q1.
The impact was particularly significant for energy and other commodities. World crude oil imports from the Middle East were estimated to have fallen by approximately 45% year-on-year in March, while imports of LNG and fertilizers from the region fell by approximately 52% and 26%, respectively.
Asia Emerges as a Major Growth Driver
Asia recorded particularly strong trade growth during the quarter.
Seasonally adjusted Asian exports increased by 12.9% year-on-year, while imports rose 14.6%. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, exports increased 5.5% and imports rose 7.2%.
The WTO attributed a significant portion of this growth to AI-related goods moving within the region.
In value terms, Asian merchandise exports increased by 20% year-on-year, supported particularly by precious metals and gold, copper, machinery, electrical machinery and ores.
North American Imports Show Sharp Decline
North America’s trade performance was mixed.
The region’s exports increased 7% year-on-year in Q1 2026. However, imports declined 10.7% compared with Q1 2025. The WTO noted that the comparison was affected by unusually high imports during Q1 2025, when businesses brought forward shipments in anticipation of tariff increases.
On a quarter-on-quarter basis, however, North American imports still increased by 3.4%.
Which Products Recorded the Strongest Growth?
The WTO’s figures show significant differences across product categories.
| Product category | Q1 2026 year-on-year change |
|---|---|
| Office & telecom equipment | +44% |
| Ores & other minerals | +27% |
| Other machinery | +9% |
| Chemicals | -6% |
| Iron & steel | -5% |
| Fuels | -3% |
The WTO said the strong performance of office and telecom equipment was largely associated with continuing demand for AI-enabling technologies.
South America and Africa Also Record Export Growth
South and Central America recorded a 14% increase in merchandise export value, with growth in products including oilseeds, precious metals and gold, meat, fuels, ores, coffee and tea.
Africa also recorded 14% export growth, supported by precious metals and gold, copper, fertilizers and ores.
However, exports from the Middle East and the CIS region each declined by 1% in value terms.
Top Exporters and Importers
Among the world’s five largest exporters, all recorded year-on-year growth in Q1 2026.
Top exporters by year-on-year nominal growth:
- Republic of Korea: +38.4%
- Hong Kong, China: +38.3%
- United States: +15.2%
- China: +14.7%
- European Union: +9.2%
Among the top five importers, US merchandise imports were the only ones to decline, falling 13.6%. Imports increased in Hong Kong, China (+44.8%), the United Kingdom (+28.0%), China (+23.0%) and the European Union (+11.4%).
WTO Warns of Greater Impact Later in 2026
The WTO’s March 2026 baseline forecast had projected 1.9% growth in global merchandise trade volume for the full year.
However, the WTO cautioned that the conflict in the Middle East could reduce global trade growth by 0.5 percentage points under a high-energy-price scenario. At the same time, continued strong investment in AI could add another 0.5 percentage points to growth.
WTO economists now expect larger contractions in Middle Eastern trade flows later in the year, while Asia and North America could experience stronger growth.
The WTO said the overall outcome will depend largely on whether the AI-driven expansion in trade outweighs the negative effects of the Middle East conflict.
The organization’s next Global Trade Outlook and Statistics (GTOS) report, containing an updated trade forecast, is scheduled for October 2026.
What This Means for Importers and Exporters
The latest WTO data provides several important signals for international businesses:
- AI-related products are emerging as a major driver of global trade growth.
- Shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz could have a larger impact on Q2 and subsequent trade data.
- Importers dependent on Middle Eastern crude oil, LNG and fertilizers may face continuing supply-chain risks.
- Asian manufacturers and exporters remain major beneficiaries of increasing AI-related demand.
- Businesses should monitor freight costs, energy prices, shipping routes and delivery times as the impact of the Middle East disruption becomes clearer.
- The WTO’s October trade forecast could provide a clearer picture of the full-year outlook.
Key Takeaway
Global merchandise trade entered 2026 on a stronger footing than expected, with AI-related demand providing significant support to international trade. However, the WTO warns that the full impact of the Middle East conflict and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz has yet to appear in the trade data.
For importers and exporters, the coming quarters will therefore be crucial as businesses navigate the competing forces of AI-driven demand, shipping disruptions, energy-market volatility and changing global trade patterns.
References
- World Trade Organization (WTO), “Global goods trade resilient in the first quarter of 2026 despite war in Middle East,” 31 July 2026. Read the full WTO article
- WTO–UNCTAD trade statistics: The WTO article identifies WTO–UNCTAD data as the source for the Q1 2026 global merchandise trade estimates.
- WTO Global Trade Outlook and Statistics (GTOS): The WTO’s March 2026 forecast is referenced in the article and the next updated forecast is expected in October 2026.
- WTO AI-related goods data: The WTO article refers to its dataset on trade in AI-enabling goods. WTO AI-related goods dataset
Source: World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Analysis, 31 July 2026.
